Political Scientists have long understood the political impact that party labels have on voters’ choice, even in Presidential Elections. I emphasize presidential elections because of the massive number of political TV ads, endorsements, news coverage and direct mail that voters receive during the campaign would suggest that campaigns have a major impact on the outcome.…… Continue reading Can You Predict a Presidential Election Outcome Years In Advance?
HOW RELIGION EFFECTS VOTE CHOICE Politics and religion have been an essential part of American elections since the Pilgrims crash landed on Plymouth Rock. In my early days in politics, it became apparent to me that Jews and most Catholics voted Democratic, and Protestants voted Republican. This was how we determined our “get out…… Continue reading DID MORE RELIGIOUS VOTERS
April 29, 2021 “The order is rapidly fadin’ And the first one now will later be the last For the times they are a-changin’ ” Bob Dylan (1964) Bob Dylan’s inspirational song preceded the social changes that would transform the America in the 1960’s. It’s a simple elegy of his idea that America was about…… Continue reading The Decline of the American White Voter
December 8, 2020 With Donald Trump railing about how mail ballots encourage fraud and other insidious crimes associated with the this type of voting method, I would expect that some Republican voters would opt for voting in person, even in the midst a hundred year pandemic. My curiosity led me to rank the counties by…… Continue reading The First Quadrennial Florida Mail-In Ballot Awards
December 7, 2020 After every election, many political pundits conduct the inevitable election autopsy. For winners, it is more about taking credit for the win. For the losers, its not to take the blame at all. This post is neither. I’m just curious how Florida vote changed since 2016. To understand Florida you need to…… Continue reading FLORIDA’S 2016 VOTE VS. 2020: THE MORE THINGS CHANGE THE MORE THEY STAY THE SAME?
November 24, 2020 OK the polls were generally off again. They underestimated the Trump vote even after all the changes recommended by independent experts since 2016. In the last post, I showed that Trump voters were not candid about who they were voting for on election day, a form of social desirability effect. “The Return…… Continue reading THERE IS A BETTER AND MORE ACCURATE WAY TO PREDICT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS THAN POLLS
November 16, 2020 I’m sure you have heard or read that the Presidential Election polls screwed up again. Initially I was skeptical, of course, since 2016 almost all polling firms had made significant changes to their methodologies such as weighting voter education. But after all the studies and soul searching, whatever changes that were made…… Continue reading The Return of the Shy Trump Voter!
November 2, 2020 Ok, tomorrow is Election Day (thank God). And with caution thrown to the wind, I will make my key state predictions. Using the latest large sample surveys that are available, and the early partisan votes to confirm my intuition. First, the basics: All surveys have must have at least 700 or more…… Continue reading DR. POLITICS ELECTION PREDICTIONS
October 28, 2020 Florida has a total of 3,783,286 No Party Affiliation voters (NPA). Over a million have already voted in the Presidential Election. If you are a Democrat or a Republican you have a high probability of voting for the candidate representing that Party. But what about the NPA’s? Most folks call them independents,…… Continue reading MEET THE VOTERS WHO COULD WIN FLORIDA FOR BIDEN
October 27, 2020 This a quick update on seven key battleground states. In the chart and table below, is a one month comparison of Joe Biden’s average poll lead in these key states. POLL DATE23-Sep25-OctSTATEBIDEN LEAD %BIDEN LEAD %FLORIDA1.5-0.4WISCONSIN6.95.5MICHIGAN6.59.4PENN3.83.8MINNOSOTA10.26ARIZONA4.42.4N. CAROLINA0.70.8AVERAGE4.863.9 The last two columns are the end dates of each series of surveys. First series…… Continue reading IS BIDEN’S LEAD IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES STARTING TO SHRINK?