October 27, 2020 This a quick update on seven key battleground states. In the chart and table below, is a one month comparison of Joe Biden’s average poll lead in these key states. POLL DATE23-Sep25-OctSTATEBIDEN LEAD %BIDEN LEAD %FLORIDA1.5-0.4WISCONSIN6.95.5MICHIGAN6.59.4PENN3.83.8MINNOSOTA10.26ARIZONA4.42.4N. CAROLINA0.70.8AVERAGE4.863.9 The last two columns are the end dates of each series of surveys. First series…… Continue reading IS BIDEN’S LEAD IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES STARTING TO SHRINK?
October 26, 2020 As expected, early voting is benefiting the Democrats. Data collected by the Elections Project (United States Elections Project) from the Florida Division of Elections shows that Democratic voters as of October 25, have a 6.4% lead over Republican voters, as shown below. Total Voted by Party RegistrationOCT. 25PartyCountPercentDemocrats2,440,47042.8Republicans2,076,62136.4Minor69,7981.2No Party Affiliation1,119,40419.6TOTAL5,706,293100TABLE 1 CHART…… Continue reading EARLY VOTING IN FLORIDA: WHO IS WINNING SO FAR?
October 23, 2020 The impact of the incumbent’s Job Approval rating on his reelection nationally is well established. Since 1948, the beginning of modern polling, only one incumbent president, Harry Truman, has won reelection with an job approval rating less than 48%. Below is a table showing all incumbent presidents since that election with their…… Continue reading SWING STATE JOB APPROVAL EXPERIMENT
October 20, 2020 I have seen some TV reporting that Republicans are outperforming Democrats in new registrations. This stimulated my interest to see if this was true in Florida and if so, what impact it might have on the Presidential Election occurring in two weeks. I have assembled Florida registration data from 1972 through 2020…… Continue reading THE INCREDIBLE SHRINKING FLORIDA DEMOCRATIC REGISTRATION ADVANTAGE!
October 19, 2020 Conventional wisdom has a higher turnout benefits the Democratic Party. This conclusion is mostly based on the majority party having a large population of lower social economic status (SES) voters, thus decreasing their participation rate on election day. But in a Presidential Election, the turnout rate is always higher and conceptionally, should…… Continue reading WILL A HIGHER TURNOUT HELP BIDEN WIN FLORIDA?
October 15, 2020 Many political pundits are predicting a record turnout in the Presidential Election on November 3, including Florida. I don’t disagree with these opinions, based on early statistics of mail voting and early voting in states around the country. Early voting begins in Florida next Monday and I expect to see lines wrapped…… Continue reading A SHORT BUT INTERESTING VOTING HISTORY OF FLORIDA’S ELECTION TURNOUT IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
October 13, 2020 In today’s New York Times, there was an article that claimed the Trump campaign “appears to recognize that the two states (Wisconsin and Michigan) no longer represent his likeliest path to re-election.” This observation is based on the Trump campaign’s decision to reduce its television ads in these two states. Instead, The…… Continue reading How Important are Arizona and Pennsylvania and How do they Compare now to 2016?
October 12, 2020 We are now at 22 days until the election and although Biden is significantly ahead in the national polls, many swing states are still too close to call. As we all know by now, the national popular vote doesn’t determine who wins the White House. Historically, the Republican nominee has to win…… Continue reading Compared to Florida in 2016, How are Trump and Biden Doing?
October 9, 2020 I’m sure many of you have heard or read that election turnout has declined in the United State over the past several decades. Until recently, this has been the conclusion of even political experts and it stems from how statisticians and political scientists were calculating turnout. The primary statistic that experts have…… Continue reading Is Election Turnout Declining in Florida?
October 8, 2020 Watching Fox News this morning (yes, I watch both CNN and Fox News, that’s why I’m fair and balanced!) they had a report from the Hoover Institution which compared an online-survey of Battleground states conducted by YouGov/Economist to actual 2016 Battleground votes on the same dates. To summarize, they found that when…… Continue reading In 2016, did Clinton have a bigger lead in the Battleground states than Biden has today?