IS BIDEN’S LEAD IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES STARTING TO SHRINK?

October 27, 2020

This a quick update on seven key battleground states. In the chart and table below, is a one month comparison of Joe Biden’s average poll lead in these key states.

POLL DATE23-Sep25-Oct
STATEBIDEN LEAD %BIDEN LEAD %
FLORIDA1.5-0.4
WISCONSIN6.95.5
MICHIGAN6.59.4
PENN3.83.8
MINNOSOTA10.26
ARIZONA4.42.4
N. CAROLINA0.70.8
AVERAGE4.863.9

The last two columns are the end dates of each series of surveys. First series is Biden’s lead in seven battleground states completed on September 23. The second series on October 25, a little over one month apart. The chart shows a graphical representation of each state’s changes during this period.

In all seven states, Biden lost on average one percent. The only state he increased his lead was Michigan, where he improved his lead by nearly 3%. And he is still ahead of Trump in the key state of Pennsylvania, at 3%.

He has fallen slightly behind Trump in Florida. In general, however, Biden is holding his own with only one week to go. But its clear that Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina are still very close and still in play. That’s 75 electoral votes.

Make sure you get a nap on November 3rd, cause it looks like its going to be a long night. Be safe …

By Jim Kane

Jim Kane is a pollster and media advisor, and was for fifteen years an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida. Kane is founder of the polling firm USAPoll and served as the Director of the Florida Voter Poll. His political clients have included both Republican and Democratic candidates, including the Republican Party of Florida, and both the Sun-Sentinel and Orlando Sentinel newspapers. At the University of Florida, Professor Kane taught graduate level courses in political science on Survey Research, Lobbying and Special Interest Groups in America, Political Campaigning, and Political Behavior. In addition to his professional and academic career, Jim Kane has been actively involved in local and state policy decisions. He was elected to the Broward County Soil and Water Conservation Board (1978-1982) and the Port Everglades Authority (1988-1994). Kane also served as an appointed member of the Broward County Planning Council (1995-2003), Broward County Management Review Committee (Chair, 1990-1991), Broward County Consumer Protection Board (1976-1982), and the Broward County School Board Consultants Review Committee (1986-1990).

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