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EARLY VOTING IN FLORIDA: WHO IS WINNING SO FAR?

October 26, 2020

As expected, early voting is benefiting the Democrats. Data collected by the Elections Project (United States Elections Project) from the Florida Division of Elections shows that Democratic voters as of October 25, have a 6.4% lead over Republican voters, as shown below.

Total Voted by Party RegistrationOCT. 25
PartyCountPercent
Democrats2,440,47042.8
Republicans2,076,62136.4
Minor69,7981.2
No Party Affiliation1,119,40419.6
TOTAL5,706,293100
TABLE 1
CHART 1

As of this date, Democrats have a 363, 849 vote advantage over the Republicans.

Most of this early Democratic advantage comes from Mail-in ballots. In Table 2 below, you will find the Democrats have returned 594,110 more ballots than Florida Republicans and have a return rate of 65% compared to the Republicans 61.8% rate.

Mail Ballots Returned by Party Registration25-Oct
PartyReturned BallotsFreq. DistributionRequested BallotsReturn Rate
Democrats1,744,52747.12,671,74065.3
Republicans1,150,417311,862,28561.8
Minor45,1161.282,19554.9
No Party Affiliation765,72920.71,353,71956.6
TOTAL3,705,7891005,969,93962.1
TABLE 2

Where the Republicans excel is in the in-person voting. As displayed in Table 3 below, the Republicans lead by 11.5% in this category.

 In-Person Votes by Party Registration 
 Party  Count  Percent 
 Democrats      695,943.00                     34.80
 Republicans      926,204.00                     46.30
 Minor         24,682.00                        1.20
 No Party Affiliation      353,675.00                     17.70
 TOTAL  2,000,504.00                   100.00
TABLE 3

At this point, Republicans have outvoted in-person the Democrats by 230,261 ballots. And on Election Day, this is where the Republicans will close the gap.

With the Democrats significant lead in Mail-in ballots, the Republicans need to make up a deficit of 363, 849 votes on November 3rd. But don’t underestimate the Election Day Republican vote. This is when they start showing up at the polls. This lead will evaporate quickly.

In 2016, there were 9,122,861 total ballots cast which equated to a 75% turnout of registered voters.

2016VOTES CAST
TRUMP4,617,886
CLINTON4,504,975
TOTAL9,122,861
TABLE 4

If the 75% turnout rate holds, that means there are still at least 5,125,108 votes still to be cast. That’s still a lot of votes and only a week to cast them. If you haven’t voted already, make sure you are part of that 5 million votes. Be safe…

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