October 26, 2020
As expected, early voting is benefiting the Democrats. Data collected by the Elections Project (United States Elections Project) from the Florida Division of Elections shows that Democratic voters as of October 25, have a 6.4% lead over Republican voters, as shown below.
|Total Voted by Party Registration||OCT. 25|
|No Party Affiliation||1,119,404||19.6|
As of this date, Democrats have a 363, 849 vote advantage over the Republicans.
Most of this early Democratic advantage comes from Mail-in ballots. In Table 2 below, you will find the Democrats have returned 594,110 more ballots than Florida Republicans and have a return rate of 65% compared to the Republicans 61.8% rate.
|Mail Ballots Returned by Party Registration||25-Oct|
|Party||Returned Ballots||Freq. Distribution||Requested Ballots||Return Rate|
|No Party Affiliation||765,729||20.7||1,353,719||56.6|
Where the Republicans excel is in the in-person voting. As displayed in Table 3 below, the Republicans lead by 11.5% in this category.
|In-Person Votes by Party Registration|
|No Party Affiliation||353,675.00||17.70|
At this point, Republicans have outvoted in-person the Democrats by 230,261 ballots. And on Election Day, this is where the Republicans will close the gap.
With the Democrats significant lead in Mail-in ballots, the Republicans need to make up a deficit of 363, 849 votes on November 3rd. But don’t underestimate the Election Day Republican vote. This is when they start showing up at the polls. This lead will evaporate quickly.
In 2016, there were 9,122,861 total ballots cast which equated to a 75% turnout of registered voters.
If the 75% turnout rate holds, that means there are still at least 5,125,108 votes still to be cast. That’s still a lot of votes and only a week to cast them. If you haven’t voted already, make sure you are part of that 5 million votes. Be safe…