July 1, 2020 “It’s one of those laws of the universe, isn’t it? Nothing stays the same. Things change.” – Author: Sam Gayton Sometimes you become immune to demographic changes. They sneak up on you until one day you wake up and find that the world you thought you knew has moved on and left you with new…… Continue reading The Changing American Voter
Race and Guns June 28, 2020 Our continuing series on the differences between Trump and Biden supporters touches on the how the two groups differ fundamentally on race relations and guns, both issues that consume the nation today. On the issue of whether blacks are have gotten less than they deserve, most Trump devotees strongly…… Continue reading The Polarization of the American Electorate: Part 3
The Immigration Issue June 24, 2020 I’m sure that you are familiar how America has become polarized over the last decade. This relatively new phenomenon is mainly based along partisan lines. For example, when pollsters show how the public views the economy, Democrats and Republicans have significantly different evaluations when faced with the same data.…… Continue reading The Polarization of the American Electorate. Special Series on Trump and Biden Positions on Key Issues
June 18, 2020 In my search for new data sources, I discovered a series of polls that included what pollsters call “favorability ratings” prior to and after the 2016 Presidential Election. As a pollster, I have used the favorable ratings in almost every political survey. It is a non-presidential candidate version of the job approval…… Continue reading TRUMP HAS NEVER BEEN POPULAR
June 16, 2020 You may have read or heard that new Covid-19 cases are spiking. We used to think that a couple hundred of new cases were high, now thousands are the new normal. The Governor blames these new cases on increased testings. Obviously, more testing does reveal more Covid cases, but no one knows…… Continue reading The Florida Governor Says Don’t Worry: It’s The Hospitalizations That Matter
June 12, 2020 “Mr. Biden leads the President by around 10 percentage points in an average of recent of live-interview telephone surveys of registered voters.” The Upshot I get the New York Times delivered everyday. It’s my morning coffee time and I look forward it. I’ve always considered the “Times” well researched and written. It…… Continue reading New York Times Article: “New Numbers Suggest Major Erosion of Trump’s Support” says TheUpshot June 10, 2020
June 8, 2020 You probably have read that Donald Trump has pulled the RNC Nomination Convention from Charlotte, North Carolina, because the the Governor would not guarantee that social distancing would not be required. The RNC is now scrambling to find another location within three months. They are currently surveying seven cities as for a…… Continue reading Does the Presidential Convention Site Help a Candidate Win the Convention State?
June 7, 2020 “Tragedy is a tool for the living to gain wisdom, not a guide by which to live.” -Robert F. Kennedy. After the horrific killing of George Floyd was broadcast on TV around the world along with the immediate protests throughout the country, I felt sick to my stomach. But as the days…… Continue reading Did the Killing of George Floyd and the Immediate Potests Hurt Trump?
June 4, 2020 Today is the day we matched our highest percentage change in Florida’s new Covid-19 cases. Back on May 26, I published my new logarithmic model on the daily new cases in Florida (“The Canary in the Coal Mine is Beginning to Sing”). Using a logarithmic transformation (natural log), I changed the daily…… Continue reading The Canary in the Coal Mine is Singing a Little Louder
June 2, 2020 Conventional wisdom has always had Democrats benefiting from higher turnout. After all, Democrats have a larger proportion of lower income and less educated voters. Even the Republicans must believe this as well, since Republican legislatures often pass more restrictive rules to limit new registrants usually under the guise of preventing voter fraud.…… Continue reading Does a Higher Voter Turnout Benefit the Democrats?