Have the Democrats and Republicans lost their Convention Bump?

August 1, 2020 When I was growing up, the Party Conventions decided the nominee through a series of votes by delegates who were wheeling and dealing for influence. It was a pageant that would put any of today’s reality shows to shame. I remember watching it with my father on a black and white TV,…… Continue reading Have the Democrats and Republicans lost their Convention Bump?

Another Metric that can Predict the Presidential Election Winner?

July 26, 2020 When I was doing research on how bookies make odds on elections, I found an article that noted how some bookies use favorability ratings of presidential candidates to calculate their odds. I personally have used these ratings in local and state surveys and found them to be quite useful at that level.…… Continue reading Another Metric that can Predict the Presidential Election Winner?

Is There a Better Way to Predict Who Will Win the Presidential Election than Polls?

July 19, 2020 Probably most viewers of this blog keep an eye on the latest Biden vs. Trump poll numbers. That and Trump’s job approval ratings are the only metrics we can use to see who is winning and losing before the election itself. But there is another measure of how well the candidates are…… Continue reading Is There a Better Way to Predict Who Will Win the Presidential Election than Polls?

“Biden Opens Up Largest Polling Lead of the Year Over Trump …” Bloomberg News

July 16, 2020 I’m sure by now you have heard how Biden is extending his lead in the latest polls. The media has blasted that headline on every website and newspaper in the country. Although Bloomberg’s headline is correct, it’s not the whole story, which I think is even more interesting. In the Chart below,…… Continue reading “Biden Opens Up Largest Polling Lead of the Year Over Trump …” Bloomberg News

Can Donald Trump Win the 2020 Election through the Swing States Again?

July 13, 2020 Donald Trump’s only path to another term in the White House is through the swing states and not the national popular vote. In other words, he has to repeat his wining strategy in 2016 where he lost the popular vote by 2.1% but won the Electoral College by 74 votes. (I eliminated…… Continue reading Can Donald Trump Win the 2020 Election through the Swing States Again?