August 1, 2020 When I was growing up, the Party Conventions decided the nominee through a series of votes by delegates who were wheeling and dealing for influence. It was a pageant that would put any of today’s reality shows to shame. I remember watching it with my father on a black and white TV,…… Continue reading Have the Democrats and Republicans lost their Convention Bump?
July 29, 2020 George W. Bush’s first term started with an approval rating of 60% and after the terrorist attacks on 9-11, it reached as high as 92%. But from that time on, his approval rating slowly deteriorated until it reached a low in May of 2004 at 46%, just five months before his reelection…… Continue reading A TALE OF TWO INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS FIGHT FOR REELECTION
July 26, 2020 When I was doing research on how bookies make odds on elections, I found an article that noted how some bookies use favorability ratings of presidential candidates to calculate their odds. I personally have used these ratings in local and state surveys and found them to be quite useful at that level.…… Continue reading Another Metric that can Predict the Presidential Election Winner?
July 22, 2020 The trend among most pollsters has always been to use a sample of all residents or registered voters early on in the election campaign and switch to likely voters as the election nears. The reason for this protocol was explained to me by an early leader in modern campaign polling, Bill Hamilton,…… Continue reading Do Likely Voter Polls Benefit Donald Trump?
July 19, 2020 Probably most viewers of this blog keep an eye on the latest Biden vs. Trump poll numbers. That and Trump’s job approval ratings are the only metrics we can use to see who is winning and losing before the election itself. But there is another measure of how well the candidates are…… Continue reading Is There a Better Way to Predict Who Will Win the Presidential Election than Polls?
July 16, 2020 I’m sure by now you have heard how Biden is extending his lead in the latest polls. The media has blasted that headline on every website and newspaper in the country. Although Bloomberg’s headline is correct, it’s not the whole story, which I think is even more interesting. In the Chart below,…… Continue reading “Biden Opens Up Largest Polling Lead of the Year Over Trump …” Bloomberg News
July 13, 2020 Donald Trump’s only path to another term in the White House is through the swing states and not the national popular vote. In other words, he has to repeat his wining strategy in 2016 where he lost the popular vote by 2.1% but won the Electoral College by 74 votes. (I eliminated…… Continue reading Can Donald Trump Win the 2020 Election through the Swing States Again?
July 11, 2020 In previous posts, I have stated that no incumbent President has won re-election with an approval rating less than 48% on the last poll before the election since Truman. The reasoning for this statistical fact is based on the theory that the approval rating gauges both the president’s popularity as well as…… Continue reading Trump Supporters Don’t Despair (Yet)
July 9, 2020 Reading a recent article about how Barack Obama won the two terms for president, it made me start to wonder how he managed to win Florida twice and Hillary Clinton lost it in 2016. His victories were close, of course, and his victory over Mitt Romney in 2012 was less than one…… Continue reading How did Obama Win Florida and How did Clinton Lose it?
July 6, 2020 I was just beginning my survey career in the 1980’s, just as pollsters were transitioning from in-person interviews to telephone surveys. Gallup finally gave up the in-person survey in 1988, marking the end of public polls using in-person surveys. Today the new kid on the block is the online poll where interviews…… Continue reading Online vs. Live Caller Polls: Which is Better?