Category: Uncategorized

June 4, 2020 Today is the day we matched our highest percentage change in Florida’s new Covid-19 cases. Back on May 26, I published my new logarithmic model on the daily new cases in Florida (“The Canary in the Coal Mine is Beginning to Sing”). Using a logarithmic transformation (natural log), I changed the daily…… Continue reading The Canary in the Coal Mine is Singing a Little Louder

June 2, 2020 Conventional wisdom has always had Democrats benefiting from higher turnout. After all, Democrats have a larger proportion of lower income and less educated voters. Even the Republicans must believe this as well, since Republican legislatures often pass more restrictive rules to limit new registrants usually under the guise of preventing voter fraud.…… Continue reading Does a Higher Voter Turnout Benefit the Democrats?

May 30, 2020 Since January 1st, 1,131 national polls asked “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?” The average percent of “Disapprove” for these 1131 surveys is 53.3%. That virtually every national poll contains this question suggests that it has some significant importance that should effect…… Continue reading Trump Presidential Job Approval and His Polling for President

May 28, 2020 I’m sure that most of you have heard that President Trump wants to eliminate mail-in ballot voting, particularly in battleground states. His reasoning (I’m using that word in its broadest sense) that mail-in ballots are ripe for election fraud, even though most political scientists say the amount of election fraud is small,…… Continue reading Do Mail-in Ballots in Florida give Democrats an Advantage?

May 26, 2020 Regular viewers of this site may recall that one of my original posts was showing our Covid-19 model for both Florida and the US. The model was a non-linear (cubic) estimate of the direction of the virus that accurately predicted when the virus’s new cases began to decline in both Florida and…… Continue reading The Canary in the Coal Mine is Beginning to Sing

May 24, 2020 I don’t know about you, but I’m having trouble of whether Florida’s new virus cases are rising, declining or just plain stuck in second gear. On television, some news stations tell us that Florida’s new cases are stabilized, and another reports it’s declining and and some newspapers that they are rising. The…… Continue reading Are Florida Covid-19 New Cases Going Up, Down or Sideways?

May 22, 2020 In early April, I statistically demonstrated that the coronavirus had no effect on Donald Trump’s Job Approval ratings (Has the Coronavirus Hurt Donald Trump’s Reelection Chances?). That post showed that pre-virus period approval ratings were not statistically different than the virus period. Now I read and hear that Trump’s polling numbers against…… Continue reading HAS THE COVID-19 VIRUS HURT TRUMP’S POLL NUMBERS?

May 20, 2020 From the state that brought you hanging chads, and elections so close that it sometimes takes days to find out who won, now comes the 2020 Presidential election mired in a pandemic using virtual campaign events with voters who don’t know what “virtual” means. So starts another “Florid-Duh” spectacle between one candidate…… Continue reading Florida, the Grand Grand Poobah of American Politics

May 15, 2020 On Monday, all of Florida will open its doors to the public on a limited phased approach. If the opening doesn’t lead to a spike in new Covid-19 cases, further reductions on restrictions are likely. But is Florida ready for this experiment? According to most epidemiologists, there are three critical elements that…… Continue reading Is Florida ready to open up the entire state?

Most folks who aren’t American historians, don’t know that Thomas Jefferson beat George Washington in 1796 with 50.6% of the vote. And so began Pennsylvania’s long history of close presidential elections. Since 1980, the average winning percentage was 50.4%. Now that’s close! Since 1980, six Democratic and four Republican presidential candidates have carried the state.…… Continue reading Pennsylvania has a long history of close elections. Will 2020 be an exception?