September 23, 2020
We are at 40 days until the Presidential Election and the polls should become more accurate. Almost all public surveys are now using likely voter samples, which will give Trump a slight bump from the all voters samples as I have pointed out previously. (http://thepoliticsdr.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=1517&action=edit).
There have been a flurry of new state polls in the last couple of weeks and I have updated six of the seven battleground states. I have eliminated Minnesota from the list because Biden is pulling way ahead of Trump in the latest polls. On average, he now has a 10 point lead in the North Star State.
On average, Biden now leads Trump in all six states by only 3.9%. In Florida, his average lead is 1.5%, an increase of 0.3% since September 12. This Florida average includes an ABC news / Washington Post poll having Trump leading in Florida by 4%. But so far that is the only current survey giving Trump the lead in the Sunshine State.
| PREV % Sept. 12 | CURRENT LEAD% SEPT 23rd | DIF % | ||||
| FLORIDA | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | |||
| WISCONSIN | 6.3 | 6.9 | 0.6 | |||
| MICHIGAN | 4.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | |||
| PENNSYLVANIA | 4.3 | 3.8 | -0.5 | |||
| MINNOSOTA | N/A | N/A | N/A | |||
| ARIZONA | 4.8 | 4.4 | -0.4 | |||
| NORTH CAROLINA | 0.8 | 0.7 | -0.1 | |||
| AVERAGE | 3.6 | 3.9 | 0.37 |
Pennsylvania has Biden leading by 3.8%, a slight drop of 0.5% since September 12. In Michigan, Biden has extended his average lead to 6.5%, an increase of 2.3% since September 12.
In Arizona, Biden has given up some ground where his average dropped 0.4% since the 12th. That same ABC/Washington Post poll also had Trump leading by 1%, but so far it’s the only one in that category.
And North Carolina also shows the race tightening. Biden’s average lead declined by 0.4% in the past 11 days. Not a tsunami, but a very slow erosion.
The average lead for Biden in the Big Three (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida) is now 3.9%. If Trump can win these three states alone he’ll gain 65 electoral votes and almost certainly win the Electoral College. Carrying Arizona and North Carolina alone will not cut it. That would only give him 26 electoral votes.
This is still a close race for the Electoral College. Trump is unlikely to win the popular vote again. But his path to get a new set of White House keys will likely be in these states, but time is slipping away.
I will be updating this data on a regular basis as new polls in these states are posted. Be safe…
