August 11, 2020
In a recent post (://thepoliticsdr.com/2020/09/06/forget-the-national-polls-these-are-the-states-you-need-to-watch/), I outlined how Trump can win the Presidency while still losing the national popular vote. In my humble opinion, Trump will not win the popular vote again.
That leaves his path back to the White House through the battleground states, in particular Florida, Pennsylvania and Michigan, which would add 65 electoral votes to his national total. This is not a secret and it is no coincidence that both candidates were in Michigan and Pennsylvania for the last two days.
Because of this, I will be posting regular updates on the battleground states and measuring changes to the race as they occur. Below is the latest update with the most recent averages of polls.
| PREVIOUS LEAD % | CURRENT LEAD% | DIFF% | ELECT.COLLEGE | |||
| FLORIDA | 1.8 | 1.2 | -0.6 | 29 | ||
| WISCONSIN | 4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 10 | ||
| MICHIGAN | 2.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 16 | ||
| PENNSYLVANIA | 3.5 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 20 | ||
| MINNOSOTA | 5.3 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 10 | ||
| ARIZONA | 5 | 4.8 | -.02 | 11 | ||
| NORTH CAROLINA | 0.6 | .08 | 0.2 | 15 | ||
| AVERAGE % | 3.3 | 3.9 | 0.6 |
The trend to this date is a slight gain by Biden since our last post on these seven states. But he is now behind in both Florida and Arizona, but by only .6% and .02% respectively. Notice that the difference in Florida’s average has changed by only six tenths of a percent since the last average, but to Trump’s favor. Florida is still headed to its usual status as the closest state in the Union on election day.
Overall, Biden has increased his lead on average in all seven swing states since our last series of polls by only 0.6%. But in the three states that Trump can clinch the election, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump still trails Biden by an average of 3.2%, even with an increase in Florida.
With 20 days until the election, the outcome is still uncertain and both candidates have a good chance winning. My gut feeling is that Florida is going south on Biden and that leaves Michigan and Pennsylvania the key states for both candidates. At the state level, this race is still within 3.2%. Don’t print your favorite candidate’s winning bumper just yet. I’d wait for a couple days after the election to be sure…Be safe.
