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THE 2020 POLITICAL DISCONNECT!

August 23, 2020

I have been conducting polls for over 30 years and I have never seen such odd survey results as I have seen in this presidential election. To this point, the results of several recent polls conducted by the Harris Research Associates for NBC/Wall Street Journal Surveys confirm this observation.

The average sample size for each of the 11 polls, was over 500 interviews conducted live from both land lines and cell phones. These are quality surveys.

In all these surveys, a question was asked how positive or negative (very, somewhat, and neutral) feelings they had for Donald Trump. In eight of these surveys, they also asked the same question for Joe Biden as well. Below are the “Very Positive” responses for each candidate.

Trump Very Positive % Biden Very Positive %

30 18
29 15
29 17
31 16
29 18
33 14
29 NA
27 12
30 NA
28 11
28 NA
Average 29.3 Average 15.1
Trump and Biden Very Positive Ratings

Trump scores an average 14% more “very positive” reviews than Biden, which would normally suggest he is the front runner. But he is not, as the table below showing the trial ballot results from the same surveys makes clear.

DATETRUMP %BIDEN %
20-Aug4150
20-Jul4051
20-Jun4249
20-Apr4249
20-Mar4352
AVERAGE41.650.2
Trump and Biden Percent of Two Party Vote.

Not only is Trump not winning the popular vote, but he is trailing Biden by almost 9%. This relationship, in my experience, is highly unusual. So what’s happening? Well the problem for Trump is that he is not only leading with the very positive views, he is also winning the “very negative” ratings as well.

TRUMP VERY NEGATIVE %BIDEN VERY NEGATIVE %
4433
4833
4526
4325
4224
AVERAGE % 44.4AVERAGE % 28.2
TRUMP AND BIDEN VERY NEGATIVE RATINGS

When you subtract Trump’s very negative scores from his very positive ones, he comes up with net positive of only 2.8%. Biden on the other hand, has net positive of 22%, a difference of 19 points in Biden’s favor.

The expression you either love him or hate him could be Donald Trump’s campaign motto.

Trump has cultivated this love / hate relationship with voters by his actions and statements that often divide the public along partisan lines or what many call polarization. And it shows. Yes, his base is solidly with him, but the final question is will it be enough on election day. Be safe…

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