Good News Governor DeSantis says we have “Flattened the Curve”

It’s obvious the Governor doesn’t follow this blog, otherwise he would have discovered that Florida’s curve had already flattened on April 13th. It’s probably just as well, since he may have wanted to open up Florida back on April 13th. This state will not be safe to open until we have eliminated the Covid-19 new cases.

Our Covid-19 model continues to show a slow downward progress of new cases, as shown below:

Data as of April 21 , 2020

As you can see by the red track line, our model continues to predict that the number of new cases will continue to decline. Florida’s new cases declined for three days, but yesterday it increased by 150. This daily variation is normal and not a trend according to the model.

As expected, the number of new daily deaths continues to rise, as shown in the graph below:

The trend line continues its exponential movement skyward. As you will see, the national model shows a different pattern. The difference is more likely due to the number of national deaths as compared to that Florida model. The national data has far more daily deaths than Florida. A larger sample tends to spread out the data. The national model of new cases is not as far along as Florida as well, displayed in the next graph.

The US model shows the nation is not as far along in the curve, as the Florida model. But the model clearly shows that the nation is on its way downward. It looks like the US is about a month behind Florida in its control of the virus. But the number of daily deaths cases continue to rise, as graphically shown below.

Again, because of the lag time (this is the period between infection and death), new deaths will only decline until the number of new cases significantly falls.

The good news is that new Covid-19 cases continue to slowly fall in both Florida and the United States. The bad news is the number of new deaths continue to rise!

Unfortunately, some governors are expected to cancel their “stay at home orders” and open some more essential businesses such as tattoo and massage parlors! That will certainly set the economy on fire…skip the massage and stay home.

By Jim Kane

Jim Kane is a pollster and media advisor, and was for fifteen years an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida. Kane is founder of the polling firm USAPoll and served as the Director of the Florida Voter Poll. His political clients have included both Republican and Democratic candidates, including the Republican Party of Florida, and both the Sun-Sentinel and Orlando Sentinel newspapers. At the University of Florida, Professor Kane taught graduate level courses in political science on Survey Research, Lobbying and Special Interest Groups in America, Political Campaigning, and Political Behavior. In addition to his professional and academic career, Jim Kane has been actively involved in local and state policy decisions. He was elected to the Broward County Soil and Water Conservation Board (1978-1982) and the Port Everglades Authority (1988-1994). Kane also served as an appointed member of the Broward County Planning Council (1995-2003), Broward County Management Review Committee (Chair, 1990-1991), Broward County Consumer Protection Board (1976-1982), and the Broward County School Board Consultants Review Committee (1986-1990).

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