April 20, 2020
Our latest Florida Covid-19 model continues its predicted downward trend for new cases. Data near the top looks a little messy, but that suggests that near the peak the daily number of new cases goes up and down as it adjusts to model’s expected path.
For the last three days the number of new Florida new cases have declined. The model’s predicted path is still strong and shows no signs of deviation. Good sign.
The number of covid-19 deaths, unfortunately, continues to climb unabated, as shown in the model’s graph below.
The number of new deaths is almost a straight line upward. With no significant curve in sight. As you will see below, the national picture shows some of rays of hope that might herald a decline in the near future.
The model clearly shows that the Nation is at the end of the curve and is starting it’s trek downward. The number of new cases have declined for the past three days. Unlike Florida, the nation’s new deaths may be beginning it’s curve as well, according to the model’s estimate.
For the last two days, the number of new Covid deaths have declined by 15%. Just a reminder, however, although the path of the virus in the model is clear, the daily data points will sometimes bounce around. That is expected, but the predicted trend path has not shifted.
Check in on a regular basis for model updates. For now, we just have to wait out the virus. Opening up the state before we are near the bottom would be a mistake.
With a estimated spread rate (Ro) of 2.3, it wouldn’t take long for the state to spike upward again. I don’t know about you, but I want this isolation to end, but not at the expense of losing all that we have gained during the past two months. Stay home and be safe.