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Florida Has likely Peaked

Friday April 11, 2020

Today’s Florida coronavirus model strongly suggests the state has reached or nearly reached the peak of the virus epidemic, as shown in Chart 1 below.

Chart 1

Over the last few days, new Florida Covid cases have clustered at the top of the trend line (red) of our exclusive polynomial model (cubic). The model is expecting a trend downward, suggesting that Florida’s new cases will soon begin to decline.

The national numbers show that the peak hasn’t arrived yet. But the model’s projection, continues to suggest that a peak is coming.

In both Florida and the nation, the number of deaths are still climbing reflecting the lag time between new cases and death. As the number of new cases decline, we should begin to see a drop in these numbers as well. Be safe and keep watching for future estimates.

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