April 8, 2020

Just added new data to the Curve polynomial regression model and the trend toward a curve continues, as shown in Chart 1 below.

Chart 1: Florida New Virus Cases

The red trend line is starting to bend, but at this point I wouldn’t send out those “After Coronavirus Party”invitations just yet. This trend line seems a little too curved considering the latest Covid cases. One of the data points could be an outlier. We need a few more confirming cases before we know if this is the real deal.

Chart 2: Daily Florida Deaths

The current trend line is still moving upward, which is expected at this point since there is a significant lag time between when new cases appear and when a victim succumbs to the virus.


The latest national data is also beginning show a slight curve now as well. This is encouraging since it seems to be following, although slower, the Florida model. Perhaps a confirmation the trend is national.

Chart 4: National Daily Virus Deaths

And the national pattern for daily deaths nearly matches the Florida model as well, as shown in Chart 4 above. Again, there is considerable a considerable lag between a new case and an eventual new case. The US fatality rate is currently 3.13% of new confirmed cases.

I’ll be updating these charts to see if they are false alarms or actually the beginning of the big curve. So check in regularly so can tell all our friends how you predicted when the great coronavirus curve began. Stay safe…

By Jim Kane

Jim Kane is a pollster and media advisor, and was for fifteen years an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida. Kane is founder of the polling firm USAPoll and served as the Director of the Florida Voter Poll. His political clients have included both Republican and Democratic candidates, including the Republican Party of Florida, and both the Sun-Sentinel and Orlando Sentinel newspapers. At the University of Florida, Professor Kane taught graduate level courses in political science on Survey Research, Lobbying and Special Interest Groups in America, Political Campaigning, and Political Behavior. In addition to his professional and academic career, Jim Kane has been actively involved in local and state policy decisions. He was elected to the Broward County Soil and Water Conservation Board (1978-1982) and the Port Everglades Authority (1988-1994). Kane also served as an appointed member of the Broward County Planning Council (1995-2003), Broward County Management Review Committee (Chair, 1990-1991), Broward County Consumer Protection Board (1976-1982), and the Broward County School Board Consultants Review Committee (1986-1990).

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