Thursday April 9, 2020
The latest Florida new cases data (April 8) continues to show a curve downward, as shown in Graph 1 below.
The daily change is not significant but is still encouraging. Just as a recap, this graph is created by using a polynomial regression method (cubic) which in simple terms, predicts the direction of the new cases based on past data in the model. The red line estimates the expected path of new cases based on previous entered data.
This is not the same type of model you hear about on TV or see in the news. Those models are mainly based on data from countries like China and Italy. Using this data, researchers calculate mathematically how many people are susceptible, how many are infectious, and how many are recovered (or dead) and presumably immune. This is a simple explanation of a very complicated model.
NEW COVID-19 DEATHS
Unfortunately, Florida’s daily deaths continue to climb without any sign of slowing down, as shown in Graph 2 below.
As I have explained previously, deaths from the virus are always going to lag behind the number of cases. But we can estimate the future number of deaths based on the number of confirmed Covid cases.
This is called the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and it is calculated for the United States currently at 3.40, or 3.4%. of all Covid confirmed cases. (https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/)
That means for every 1000 Covid-19 cases, 34 will ultimately succumb to the virus. That may not sound significant, but today Florida added 1125 new cases, which translates to eventually 38 deaths. It adds up!
The national new cases are also continuing to show some curvature as well, as shown in Graph 3 below.
You can see that the model continues to show a slight curve forming. Like Florida’s estimate, it’s too early to confirm that new cases will decline at this point. But its still a good sign and at least the number of new Covid cases is slowing.
And finally, like Florida the number of US deaths continue to climb, as displayed in the graph below.
This, of course, is no surprise and like Florida, the daily deaths will continue to rise until we see a significant decline in new cases. Remember that for every 30 new Covid cases, forecasts one new death.
Tomorrow is another day and maybe we will see a substantive downward move. Stop by and check it out.