October 13, 2020
In today’s New York Times, there was an article that claimed the Trump campaign “appears to recognize that the two states (Wisconsin and Michigan) no longer represent his likeliest path to re-election.” This observation is based on the Trump campaign’s decision to reduce its television ads in these two states.
Instead, The Times reports that the Trump campaign has decided to go for the trifecta of Arizona, Pennsylvania and, of course, Florida. These three states would contribute 60 electoral votes and with North Carolina’s 15 electoral votes, would put the campaign very close to victory.
Considering that Trump is currently behind Biden in both Michigan and Wisconsin by a combined 13 points, this seems like a wise decision. I have posted on his chances in Florida and I consider this state still in play. But what about Arizona and Pennsylvania?
In Tables 1 and 2 below, I show what the election looked like in the same time period in both 2016 and 2020 in Arizona.
| ARIZONA 2016 | CLINTON | TRUMP | ||
| 10/6 – 10/8 | 1087 LV | 2.9 | 44 | 48 |
| 9/29 – 10/7 | 633 LV | 4.3 | 48 | 46 |
| 10/2 – 10/4 | 296 LV | — | 51 | 45 |
| 10/1 – 10/3 | 655 LV | 4.2 | 49 | 41 |
| 9/26 – 9/30 | 500 LV | 4.4 | 50 | 46 |
| 9/25 – 9/28 | 500 LV | 4.3 | 47 | 47 |
| AVG | 48.20% | 45.5 |
| ARIZONA 2020 | BIDEN | TRUMP | ||
| 10/6 – 10/9 | 1190 LV | 3.3 | 52 | 46 |
| 10/6 – 10/7 | 716 LV | 3.6 | 52 | 42 |
| 10/2 – 10/4 | 676 LV | — | 51 | 43 |
| 9/30 – 10/3 | 600 LV | 4 | 48 | 39 |
| 9/20 – 9/22 | 1015 LV | 3 | 46 | 47 |
| 9/19 – 9/22 | 799 LV | 4.3 | 52 | 44 |
| AVG | 50.2 | 43.5 |
As it stands today (Table 2), Biden on average is leading Trump in Arizona by 6.7%. At the same point in 2016, Clinton was leading Trump by 2.7%, a four percent difference in Biden’s favor.
Moving to Pennsylvania, we find that in 2016 Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump by 8 points in the polls. When the last ballot was counted, Donald Trump won the state by 0.7%.
| 2016 PENNSYLVANIA | CLINTON | TRUMP |
| 10/7 – 10/11 | 48 | 39 |
| 10/4 – 10/9 | 44 | 40 |
| 10/5 – 10/7 | 48 | 40 |
| 10/3 – 10/6 | 49 | 37 |
| 9/28 – 10/2 | 47 | 38 |
| 9/30 – 10/3 | 50 | 40 |
| 9/27 – 10/2 | 45 | 41 |
| AVG | 47.3 | 39.3 |
In Table 4 below, you will find that according to the average of polls, during the same period, Biden leads Trump by 7 points.
| 2020 PENNSYLVANIA | BIDEN | TRUMP |
| 10/10 – 10/12 | 47 | 45 |
| 10/6 – 10/11 | 51 | 44 |
| 10/4 – 10/5 | 50 | 45 |
| 10/2 – 10/4 | 50 | 46 |
| 10/1 – 10/5 | 54 | 41 |
| 9/30 – 10/4 | 54 | 43 |
| 9/30 – 10/2 | 51 | 44 |
| AVG | 51 | 44 |
In other words, the race at this point is almost the same as it was in 2016. Now if you are a Trump supporter don’t go out and celebrate just yet. None of this suggests that the polls this time are as wrong as they were in 2016.
Do I agree with the Trump campaign for repositioning from Michigan and Wisconsin to Arizona and Pennsylvania? Focusing on Arizona is a good move and it should have been a priority from the beginning. They took it for granted.
The demographics in Arizona reflect the typical Trump voter: 78% white, 4% black and a large population of gun owners and now it may very well may go Democratic.
Pennsylvania at this point is a longshot but their choices are limited with just 21 days left and a limited budget.
Time is running out for Donald Trump and he is running out of money. Beginning next week, I can start making predictions on these battleground states where the winner will be decided. Stay tuned and stay safe…
