It’s Getting Closer!

September 23, 2020

We are at 40 days until the Presidential Election and the polls should become more accurate. Almost all public surveys are now using likely voter samples, which will give Trump a slight bump from the all voters samples as I have pointed out previously. (

There have been a flurry of new state polls in the last couple of weeks and I have updated six of the seven battleground states. I have eliminated Minnesota from the list because Biden is pulling way ahead of Trump in the latest polls. On average, he now has a 10 point lead in the North Star State.

On average, Biden now leads Trump in all six states by only 3.9%. In Florida, his average lead is 1.5%, an increase of 0.3% since September 12. This Florida average includes an ABC news / Washington Post poll having Trump leading in Florida by 4%. But so far that is the only current survey giving Trump the lead in the Sunshine State.

% Sept. 12
SEPT 23rd
ARIZONA 4.84.4-0.4 
NORTH CAROLINA 0.80.7-0.1 

Pennsylvania has Biden leading by 3.8%, a slight drop of 0.5% since September 12. In Michigan, Biden has extended his average lead to 6.5%, an increase of 2.3% since September 12.

In Arizona, Biden has given up some ground where his average dropped 0.4% since the 12th. That same ABC/Washington Post poll also had Trump leading by 1%, but so far it’s the only one in that category.

And North Carolina also shows the race tightening. Biden’s average lead declined by 0.4% in the past 11 days. Not a tsunami, but a very slow erosion.

The average lead for Biden in the Big Three (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida) is now 3.9%. If Trump can win these three states alone he’ll gain 65 electoral votes and almost certainly win the Electoral College. Carrying Arizona and North Carolina alone will not cut it. That would only give him 26 electoral votes.

This is still a close race for the Electoral College. Trump is unlikely to win the popular vote again. But his path to get a new set of White House keys will likely be in these states, but time is slipping away.

I will be updating this data on a regular basis as new polls in these states are posted. Be safe…

By Jim Kane

Jim Kane is a pollster and media advisor, and was for fifteen years an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida. Kane is founder of the polling firm USAPoll and served as the Director of the Florida Voter Poll. His political clients have included both Republican and Democratic candidates, including the Republican Party of Florida, and both the Sun-Sentinel and Orlando Sentinel newspapers. At the University of Florida, Professor Kane taught graduate level courses in political science on Survey Research, Lobbying and Special Interest Groups in America, Political Campaigning, and Political Behavior. In addition to his professional and academic career, Jim Kane has been actively involved in local and state policy decisions. He was elected to the Broward County Soil and Water Conservation Board (1978-1982) and the Port Everglades Authority (1988-1994). Kane also served as an appointed member of the Broward County Planning Council (1995-2003), Broward County Management Review Committee (Chair, 1990-1991), Broward County Consumer Protection Board (1976-1982), and the Broward County School Board Consultants Review Committee (1986-1990).

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