US and Florida New Covid-19 Cases and Deaths Update

May 5, 2020

Below are the latest models for both the US and Florida. With many states opening up and reducing social distancing guidelines, many experts worry that the number of new cases (and eventually deaths) will rise or even spike. But for now, the impact of these changes have had no effect on our models.

The predicted national trend line continues on a downward direction. The end point, however, has been pushed back another 15 days.

As for the daily deaths, the predicted trend line is still dropping as well. In the month of March alone, Covid-19 has claimed the lives of 68,157 Americans. The University of Washington’s latest model has predicted a significant increase in total deaths (doubling the previous estimate).

This is not a surprise since the previous model had substantially underestimated the number of deaths in its last report. At this point, our model doesn’t reflect this increase, at least not yet. You may have noticed a “star” in the upper center of the graph. This aberration is likely a “data dump” caused by previously missed cases being dropped arbitrarily on one day. In other words, it’s an aberrant data point and should be ignored since no one can explain what it represents.

Florida’s new cases model continues its predicted track but at a painfully slow and erratic pace. The latest four data points shows a pattern of one lower followed by one slightly higher.


But the total of new cases, continues to show a decline. For example, the daily average of the last 15 new cases is 681. The previous 15 days, however, had an average daily rate of 1751 new cases, an average drop of 1070 cases.

These daily new case counts will provide our canary in the coal mine variable for future models. If the national and/or state data points start to increase beyond the model’s expectations, it will signal that the relaxation of social distancing is not working. Look for updates on a regular basis. Be safe…

By Jim Kane

Jim Kane is a pollster and media advisor, and was for fifteen years an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida. Kane is founder of the polling firm USAPoll and served as the Director of the Florida Voter Poll. His political clients have included both Republican and Democratic candidates, including the Republican Party of Florida, and both the Sun-Sentinel and Orlando Sentinel newspapers. At the University of Florida, Professor Kane taught graduate level courses in political science on Survey Research, Lobbying and Special Interest Groups in America, Political Campaigning, and Political Behavior. In addition to his professional and academic career, Jim Kane has been actively involved in local and state policy decisions. He was elected to the Broward County Soil and Water Conservation Board (1978-1982) and the Port Everglades Authority (1988-1994). Kane also served as an appointed member of the Broward County Planning Council (1995-2003), Broward County Management Review Committee (Chair, 1990-1991), Broward County Consumer Protection Board (1976-1982), and the Broward County School Board Consultants Review Committee (1986-1990).

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