Today’s Covid-19 Model Graph’s

April 28, 2020

We are now into 56 days of the first reported Covid-19 infections and we are still on the down side of the curve in both Florida and the nation.

The Florida model has recently slowed down and in the last three days, two had higher cases and one lower. The stall was likely caused by Florida’s recent increase in positive tests as posted recently. (

When the state testing got up to speed, the number of positive cases from the tests are averaging 10% a day. But the model has adapted to these recent changes and continues to predict that the number of new cases will continue to decline, if we continue social distancing.

The daily decline of new cases at this point is only one day. Under the new federal guidelines, Florida needs 14 consecutive days of fewer cases before it can start opening up. In other words, we need another 13 consecutive days, if the Governor follows the federal recommendation. After DeSantis’s meeting with Trump today, my guess is the Governor will start opening up the state.

The National model shows that the number of new cases continues its slow movement downward as well.

The national data shows new cases appear to be about a couple weeks behind Florida. And the last three days show a decline. The national daily death level is also showing signs of stabilizing as well.

As with Florida, this graph shows the effects of continued social distancing. Reopening now could cause both Florida and the nation’s new cases to spike.

Research shows that an infected person can take up to 14 days before showing any symptoms. And one to three percent of infected people are asymptomatic, who don’t even know they are a modern day “Typhoid Mary.”

And remember, the mortality rate for Covid-19 is 3.3%. Or for every 100 new positive cases, over thee will succumb to the virus. So be safe and stay home if you can…

By Jim Kane

Jim Kane is a pollster and media advisor, and was for fifteen years an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida. Kane is founder of the polling firm USAPoll and served as the Director of the Florida Voter Poll. His political clients have included both Republican and Democratic candidates, including the Republican Party of Florida, and both the Sun-Sentinel and Orlando Sentinel newspapers. At the University of Florida, Professor Kane taught graduate level courses in political science on Survey Research, Lobbying and Special Interest Groups in America, Political Campaigning, and Political Behavior. In addition to his professional and academic career, Jim Kane has been actively involved in local and state policy decisions. He was elected to the Broward County Soil and Water Conservation Board (1978-1982) and the Port Everglades Authority (1988-1994). Kane also served as an appointed member of the Broward County Planning Council (1995-2003), Broward County Management Review Committee (Chair, 1990-1991), Broward County Consumer Protection Board (1976-1982), and the Broward County School Board Consultants Review Committee (1986-1990).

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