April 15, 2010
The number of new Florida Covid-19 cases continue to decline as our model below shows.
Yesterday’s new cases made a significant drop from 1002 to 614, or a 63% decline in one day. Unfortunately, the daily number new deaths are continuing to more upward, from 524 to 591 deaths. Deaths are likely to increase until the number new cases significantly declines, remembering the lag time for Covid deaths is approximately 13 to 18 days from infection.
The national picture is also improving as well, albeit at a slower pace Florida, as shown in the model graph below.
Like Florida, the number of U. S. new cases are also falling as well, along the models projected path (red line). The confidence level of the model is high, with an Rsq. of .973.
Like Florida, the number of national new deaths are still climbing with no end in sight. Eventually, we should see a leveling off on new deaths, but that will depend on new Covid cases declining significantly.
So when can we see an end to new cases? For Florida, the model’s track suggests that the number of new cases will near zero (but not zero) between 45 and 55 days from the beginning cases, which indicates an April 20 through April 30 date. Let’s say May 1st. For the nation, the date is between May 1st to May 15th, if we continue social distancing and stay at home orders.
Deaths, however, will continue to increase for a few weeks because of the lag time between new cases and death. Even after the last of new cases reach zero, deaths will continue to occur.
I’m not as confident in the end dates, since the key variable is human behavior, which is always unpredictable. When we reach those dates, I’ll evaluate the time estimate. Be safe…and stay at home if you can.