August 31, 2020 Political scientists generally agree that party-id on at the individual level is relatively stable. Through the socialization process, most Americans adopt most of their political beliefs from their parents (August 30, 2020http://thepoliticsdr.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=1768&action=edit) At the macro level, however, this is less clear due to generational changes and political influences. In this post, I’m…… Continue reading AMERICAN PARTY IDENTITY CHANGE SINCE 1960
August 28, 2020 Some people take politics too seriously. In fact, the anger between Republicans and Democrats has now become a standard polling question in the American National Election Survey (ANES), a consortium between the University of Michigan and Stanford University that regularly conducts political surveys nationwide, has added a new question to it’s questionnaire…… Continue reading Do Democrats and Republicans want to slap each other?
August 24, 2020 One of the more contested political issues is whether America is becoming more conservative over the past three or four decades. There is no doubt that people do become more conservative as they age. Most psychology studies blame this trend on the decline of intellectual curiosity as people age, which leads to…… Continue reading HAS THE COUNTRY BECOME MORE CONSERVATIVE or MORE LIBERAL?
August 23, 2020 I have been conducting polls for over 30 years and I have never seen such odd survey results as I have seen in this presidential election. To this point, the results of several recent polls conducted by the Harris Research Associates for NBC/Wall Street Journal Surveys confirm this observation. The average sample…… Continue reading THE 2020 POLITICAL DISCONNECT!
August 20, 2020 I mentioned in a previous post (http://thepoliticsdr.com/wp-admin/post.php?post=1610&action=edit) how our parents shape our political beliefs. This process is part of the socialization process where children learn acceptable ways to function in society. Partisan behavior is part of this process for most children. It is a predominant factor in how adults develop partisan beliefs…… Continue reading Are we our Parents’ Political Offspring?
August 18, 2020 Caution: Some Math Involved The most misunderstood statistic in politics is the “Margin of Error.” As most people know, this statistic is based on the size of the survey sample and not the size of the population. It doesn’t matter, for instance, that you are polling voters only in Fort Lauderdale or…… Continue reading The Margin of Error and What it Really Means
August 16, 2020 I have been negligent not to cover this subject before because it is one the more important tenets of modern political science. The concept of party identification is one of the most important theories in American politics and still the major reason for most people’s vote choice. But most Americans think that…… Continue reading Most Voters think that we have two Parties with some Independents. They are wrong!
August 12, 2020 Recently, I received the latest survey data set from the American National Election Studies (ANES), a consortium of Stanford University and The University of Michigan. It is a national online survey of 3080 adults (but contains Party designation) completed in July. As typical of academic surveys, it is a massive file containing…… Continue reading Through the Eyes of Super Trump Voters
August 7, 2020 It wasn’t that long ago when Republicans and Democrats generally agreed on when a woman could obtain an abortion. Like most issues in the U.S., politics made us reconsider the issue in a partisan way. In the 1972 presidential election, Richard Nixon saw a potential way to attract Catholic votes. At that…… Continue reading The Political Polarization of Abortion
August 5, 2020 If there was one book I would recommend for a serious student of political behavior, it would be the The American Voter. ( A., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. E., & Stokes, D. E. (1960). Published in 1960, it laid the foundation for all studies on political behavior since. The cornerstone of…… Continue reading Partisanship and Voting Choice: The Myth of the Reasoning Voter