April 11, 2020
After stalling at the top, Florida’s new Covid-19 cases looks like it’s starting a slight downward slope. The Chart below shows our polynomial trend line still bending downward as new data fills in behind it.
We should see more confirmation in the next few days. But for now, our model continues to point toward a coming decline in new Covid cases. Deaths, however, continue to increase due to the lag time between new cases and and death.
The CDC estimates, based on data from China, that from the onset of pneumonia to death is 13 days. Symptoms of Covid-19 usually start within five days from infection. Using that range, we can broadly estimate that from infection to death would take approximately 18 days from contracting Covid-19 and death. Death, of course, is still relatively a rare event, since the estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is only 3.4%. For every 1000 new cases, results in 34 covid-19 deaths.
The US numbers also appear to be near a peak in new cases as well, as shown in our national model below.
The trend line is also bending downward but the data points are still just below the expected peak. We need more confirmation that the number of new cases has declined before we can say the peak has arrived nationally. But the signs are encouraging. As you would expect, the number of new deaths continues to significantly out pace the number of new cases.
I will continue to post these estimates daily, so keep checking.
