Florida New Cases Beginning the Curve?

April 11, 2020

After stalling at the top, Florida’s new Covid-19 cases looks like it’s starting a slight downward slope. The Chart below shows our polynomial trend line still bending downward as new data fills in behind it.

We should see more confirmation in the next few days. But for now, our model continues to point toward a coming decline in new Covid cases. Deaths, however, continue to increase due to the lag time between new cases and and death.

The CDC estimates, based on data from China, that from the onset of pneumonia to death is 13 days. Symptoms of Covid-19 usually start within five days from infection. Using that range, we can broadly estimate that from infection to death would take approximately 18 days from contracting Covid-19 and death. Death, of course, is still relatively a rare event, since the estimated Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is only 3.4%. For every 1000 new cases, results in 34 covid-19 deaths.

The US numbers also appear to be near a peak in new cases as well, as shown in our national model below.

The trend line is also bending downward but the data points are still just below the expected peak. We need more confirmation that the number of new cases has declined before we can say the peak has arrived nationally. But the signs are encouraging. As you would expect, the number of new deaths continues to significantly out pace the number of new cases.

I will continue to post these estimates daily, so keep checking.

By Jim Kane

Jim Kane is a pollster and media advisor, and was for fifteen years an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida. Kane is founder of the polling firm USAPoll and served as the Director of the Florida Voter Poll. His political clients have included both Republican and Democratic candidates, including the Republican Party of Florida, and both the Sun-Sentinel and Orlando Sentinel newspapers. At the University of Florida, Professor Kane taught graduate level courses in political science on Survey Research, Lobbying and Special Interest Groups in America, Political Campaigning, and Political Behavior. In addition to his professional and academic career, Jim Kane has been actively involved in local and state policy decisions. He was elected to the Broward County Soil and Water Conservation Board (1978-1982) and the Port Everglades Authority (1988-1994). Kane also served as an appointed member of the Broward County Planning Council (1995-2003), Broward County Management Review Committee (Chair, 1990-1991), Broward County Consumer Protection Board (1976-1982), and the Broward County School Board Consultants Review Committee (1986-1990).

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