Florida Has likely Peaked

Friday April 11, 2020

Today’s Florida coronavirus model strongly suggests the state has reached or nearly reached the peak of the virus epidemic, as shown in Chart 1 below.

Chart 1

Over the last few days, new Florida Covid cases have clustered at the top of the trend line (red) of our exclusive polynomial model (cubic). The model is expecting a trend downward, suggesting that Florida’s new cases will soon begin to decline.

The national numbers show that the peak hasn’t arrived yet. But the model’s projection, continues to suggest that a peak is coming.

In both Florida and the nation, the number of deaths are still climbing reflecting the lag time between new cases and death. As the number of new cases decline, we should begin to see a drop in these numbers as well. Be safe and keep watching for future estimates.

By Jim Kane

Jim Kane is a pollster and media advisor, and was for fifteen years an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Florida. Kane is founder of the polling firm USAPoll and served as the Director of the Florida Voter Poll. His political clients have included both Republican and Democratic candidates, including the Republican Party of Florida, and both the Sun-Sentinel and Orlando Sentinel newspapers. At the University of Florida, Professor Kane taught graduate level courses in political science on Survey Research, Lobbying and Special Interest Groups in America, Political Campaigning, and Political Behavior. In addition to his professional and academic career, Jim Kane has been actively involved in local and state policy decisions. He was elected to the Broward County Soil and Water Conservation Board (1978-1982) and the Port Everglades Authority (1988-1994). Kane also served as an appointed member of the Broward County Planning Council (1995-2003), Broward County Management Review Committee (Chair, 1990-1991), Broward County Consumer Protection Board (1976-1982), and the Broward County School Board Consultants Review Committee (1986-1990).

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